Ukraine = Czechoslovakia? How does this affect the Commodity Markets?

Neville Chamberlain
William Orpen via Wikimedia Commons

(click play for farm podcast)

So is Ukraine turning into Czechoslovakia 1938???  No in 1938 Chamberlain (British Prime Minister) at least got a piece of paper saying this was it and he would have “peace in our time”.

We (USA) will also never be able to get Obama’s dream of a nuclear free world.  Why? WE (USA) convinced Ukraine to give her nukes back to the Russians and if the Ukrainians still had nukes Russia would not have moved on them.  Obama also wants a smaller US military in a world where there is more cooperation all over, an “inter-connected” world.  Well tell that to guys like Putin, and countries such as Syria and Iran that still use naked aggression.  Of course we can listen to John Kerry as he talks about a 19th century act in a 21st century time period.  I guess Putin did not get that memo.

Obama also talks about a world in which “the tide of war is receding”.  Really guy, tell that to Ukrainian people right now.  Russia I believe will invade Eastern Ukraine “so as to protect the Russian speaking people there”.  May also have something to do with the nuclear missile facility in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine where SS-18 intercontinental missiles are maintained.  It appears Russian troops are massing on the eastern border of Ukraine. Putin has held a press conference saying that Russia is backing off, will not invade, is not going to take over the Crimea, etc.  Yeah, I am going to believe the former KGB guy, yeah sounds like a good idea-NOT.  My guess he waits, time is on his side, and then he moves how when Putin needs to.  He also may get the Ukrainians to cave in without a fight.

Obama also likes to call for “nation building at home”.  Which is just a reference to his predecessor’s “nation building” or attempt at it in Iraq, and which is really a code for less military spending and more social welfare spending (give me my free phone).

Excellent video by retired Col. Ralph Peters

He lays it out just how helpless the US has become.  This is going to eventually impact all markets I would guess.  Which way agricultural markets go is a good question.

We Americans are so naive and clueless about the rest of the world at times, just give me my free phone, (or farm bill for that matter).

Russia is already telling western Europe to expect natural gas shortages.  Of course the liberal progressive Europeans have very little energy of their own, they buy it all from the Russians.  The Germans after screwing up the world during the 20th century, sure look to me to be caving in to Russia now.

Just in time delivery and free trade work very well ( I am a free trader) but you have to know who you are dealing with at times. When they cut you off and you do not have reserves or your own backup supplies you are, well let’s say not in a very good position.

Kyrgyzstan could be next in line for Russian liberation I have been told.  First Georgia, now Ukraine, next central Asia for the “new” Russian Empire.

Putin in my opinion really believes his destiny is to restore the Russian Empire.  He is dangerous no amounts of “resets” will fix that fact.

Seems we are all hope and no reality.  “Don’t you just wish the world would turn out like our liberal college professors told us it would” or the Weatherman Underground folks.  Sorry to sound so rough, but coming from the state I do and watching all the liberal progressives from the extreme northeastern corner of my state nothing they “hope” for surprises me.  Washington Post has an opinion piece that is titled “President Obama’s foreign policy is based on fantasy”.

If you also want to look it up on the web – Hannity interviews Palin about comments she Ukraine coat of armsmade about Russia invading Ukraine in 2008 that the liberal main stream media just went after her over.  Seems she was not just a dumb good looker from Alaska.  You all also need to go back to the 2012 Presidential campaign and when Romney said Russia was a Geo-political threat to the US, Obama said the 1980’s were calling.  Really shows how out of touch with how the world actually is and not how he wants it to be.  Chris Matthews also has some real good video where he was the attack dog going after Romney on this, and he now looks like a complete idiot or fool.  About the only thing Putin has done for the US is show just how out of touch with how the world actually works the progressive liberals are.

Now back to what you farmers want to know.  How is this all going to affect prices.  Overnight is quiet.  We just may have to ride this out.  Grain prices for now have probably put in a temporary low, but do not listen to me I am not a good marketer at times and then at times I am just lucky and fortunate.  I am also not in the advice giving business I will just tell you what I am doing on my own operation (disclaimer).

My greatest worry is a massive increase in energy prices.  Which by the way helps Russia tremendously since it exports lots of energy.  See how this is a double or bigger win for Putin.  All the more reasons we need to become energy independent and build pipelines, drill for more oil, use the gas we have been flaring off, etc. to guard against somebody black mailing the States.  It would also be nice if we could export liquified natural gas to our allies when something like this happens in the future.  Besides putting money into the economy and adding jobs, etc.

Not to sound like a prophet but I did ask the question about Ukraine in a public grain marketing meeting about 10 days ago.  I just thought what was going on there and the Olympics over the time was right for Putin to move.  So where were all our experts on this one.  I am not a rocket scientist, so if I could see it coming where were they????????

Watch Peters’ video again, this will impact the USA long term in many ways we have no idea of now.  Probably you will see more calls for an increase in military budgets, of course the politicians will not let the military close domestic bases or cut back on projects in the politicians home states to actually help increase our efficiency with our military.  They will once again probably take it out of the pay our true American heroes receive for protecting all of us.

Link to my last post on Ukraine.

Link to my 1914 / 2014 podcast

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