US House is where the Farm Bill action is.
Frank Lucas Oklahoma chairman – wheat and cattle country
Collin Peterson democratic minority leader – Minnesota corn soybeans sugar beets some hogs, beef and dairy
dems will not have very much pull in the house 2010 election changed that
Outside ag comm Paul Ryan Wisconsin budget comm chairman; big influence now
tea party has changed farm bill debate big time
Environmental working group hopes to change the debate but Rs do not like them at all
Bill will be written by house besides Lucas – Conaway from Texas, Johnson from Illinois and Bob Goodlatte Virginia will influence it
Dem wild card is James McGovern Massachusetts. He could force a lot of votes on stuff rural dems do not have to vote on. He is all about food and nutrition assistance which is 75% of farm bill spending.
Debbie Stabenow Michigan who is chair will want to “broaden” the bill.
Pat Roberts Kansas is head R. He will have a lot more influence.
Watch Saxby Chambliss Georgia for clues to where the south is coming from and what the southern states will settle for.
USDA and White House
My guess lots of talk and little action.
Ag groups still do not understand that the paradigm shift that took place in the 2010 elections has shifted the whole debate in DC and that includes the Farm Bill.
Environmentalists will have little influence in house.
Food stamps could actually be frozen or cut by these players.
Budget deficit is a major player in all of this.
Hook and bullet crowd may come away disappointed this time
“Black Swan” event between now and farm bill completion could/will be a player in the debate. Most people have no idea what this is, but once again traditional farm bill players expect things to stay the same “the way it’s always been”. No extra money, not even what is being spent now, this is a lead player in everything I’ve been talking about.